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Zach6668 · Guru

Round 1, Game 1 - March 4, 2017

Zach6668 · Guru

Three forwards slated to play, all listed as day-to-day - Panarin, Oshie, Okposo. I have my three worst forwards available as replacements, but I'd much prefer one or all of them play, please.

MLP · Guru

Nintendo Switch came out today. Its already sold out everywhere.
Driving my son to school this morning, I was nervous as hell he would ask me to get him one. Whew, nothing. I think I may still have a shot this round. (well, prob not, but its nice to think so)

Zach, update that analyzetron you got going, what are my chances here? I need some stats!

-- Edited by MLP on Friday 3rd of March 2017 10:42:44 AM

Zach6668 · Guru

MLP wrote:
Nintendo Switch came out today. Its already sold out everywhere.
Driving my son to school this morning, I was nervous as hell he would ask me to get him one. Whew, nothing. I think I may still have a shot this round. (well, prob not, but its nice to think so)

Zach, update that analyzetron you got going, what are my chances here? I need some stats!

-- Edited by MLP on Friday 3rd of March 2017 10:42:44 AM

I'll have to do it later tonight. I think I have plans after work, so worst case is it'll be up early Saturday.

When I first started looking at playoff matchups around our trade deadline, I actually had you as the favorite in 4 of the 7 games vs Jay. Not sure how that carries over now. Plus it didn't factor in injuries or anything. And maybe trades changed things. I'll have to take a look.

You would have preferred to play me over Jay, but I think you could beat him. And I think that would be quite useful to me, as well. I'll also need one of Josh/Dan to be upset in order to avoid you guys in the 2nd round. And also, I'll need to win my series. LOL.

MLP · Guru

I think at this point, with your injuries, I would have preferred you too.
I know you guys are both stacked, but I feel like I have a pretty good team too, and if you have top guys missing any games at all these days (ie Letang/Panarin), that prob gives the edge to the opponent for the overall game.

Zach6668 · Guru

Oshie, Panarin, Letang...

Top D, #2 and #3 forwards. F me.

Zach6668 · Guru

(This is why I really needed to win the regular season. Duane won't be a pushover, but I think I can still get by him with some injuries. If I do, hopefully my team will be healthy. I'd have no shot vs you or Jay or Josh or Dan right now.)

Zach6668 · Guru

Oooh, Panarin is practicing on his regular line in the morning skate today. Just hope he doesn't tweak it tonight and he is still good to go tomorrow!

Zach6668 · Guru

Zach6668 wrote:
Oshie, Panarin, Letang...

Top D, #2 and #3 forwards. F me.

Oh I forgot Skinner missed a game and was day-to-day too, but sounds like he's going to play tonight.

I also have Okposo with an uncertain status right now. Not at practice today.

Grrrr.

rich · Overselling players since 1993

Should we pull the reject cup into another thread? It shouldn't sully the real playoffs.

MLP · Guru

I for one dont care, I will be interested in the Reject Cup too. :)

Zach6668 · Guru

rich wrote:
Should we pull the reject cup into another thread? It shouldn't sully the real playoffs.

No way

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

Good luck Jeff. All the best.

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

Wow. Just checked the records. We have had 12 seasons, and I've made the playoffs the most at 9. I thought it would be Jay or Arp. Second place is Jay, Olllie, and DaveyG. Arp has only made the playoffs 5 times, that's surprising. I'm surprised I also have only missed the playoff 3 times, feel like I've missed it a lot more.

Zach6668 · Guru

Ottawa_Biatch wrote:
Wow. Just checked the records. We have had 12 seasons, and I've made the playoffs the most at 9. I thought it would be Jay or Arp. Second place is Jay, Olllie, and DaveyG. Arp has only made the playoffs 5 times, that's surprising. I'm surprised I also have only missed the playoff 3 times, feel like I've missed it a lot more.

Yeah, I noticed that (and think I pointed it out in my bullet list after the score) back when you made the playoffs. Good work. Ollie had like 8 in a row until he missed last year.

Zach6668 · Guru

Playoffs, division winners, regular season title have all been updated in the records.

That's 3-straight Gilmour crowns for the Rockets.

MLP · Guru

Ottawa_Biatch wrote:
Wow. Just checked the records. We have had 12 seasons, and I've made the playoffs the most at 9. I thought it would be Jay or Arp. Second place is Jay, Olllie, and DaveyG. Arp has only made the playoffs 5 times, that's surprising. I'm surprised I also have only missed the playoff 3 times, feel like I've missed it a lot more.

Ya, I kind of suck in this league.

9/12 is very impressive!

that records page is so much fun, I had forgotten about it. So cool to see how long this has been going on with pretty much the same core all along. well done FCHL!

rinswun · Guru

I'm starting a new streak next season!

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

I don't know about you guys but the day I'm eliminated from the fchl is my anti-Christmas. It makes me so sad.

Jay · Turning Back the Clock

Ottawa_Biatch wrote:
Wow. Just checked the records. We have had 12 seasons, and I've made the playoffs the most at 9. I thought it would be Jay or Arp. Second place is Jay, Olllie, and DaveyG. Arp has only made the playoffs 5 times, that's surprising. I'm surprised I also have only missed the playoff 3 times, feel like I've missed it a lot more.

Yeah but one was the first year when we weren't really a league. We were more a random group and half those guys aren't even in the FCHL. Also we redrafted teams for the playoffs lol. It really was no part of the fchl at all. It was a hockey pool.

rich · Overselling players since 1993

I've never done a reject cup before, how does it work? Can we use farm players?

Zach6668 · Guru

rich wrote:
I've never done a reject cup before, how does it work? Can we use farm players?

No, just standard lineup. Set in Yahoo.

Has anyone bothered reaching out to Mike to see if he will set his lineups?

rich · Overselling players since 1993

Is there money involved? Might be fun to include farm if nothing is at stake, just post lines in here. I can score keep.

I might be biased because my roster stinks.

Jay · Turning Back the Clock

Don't forget to post OT order in here guys.

Broadway · Guru

Broadway OT order

Kuznetsov
Pearson
Reinhart
N Foligno
D Sedin
Maroon
Skjei
Holden
Campbell
Jordie Benn

GOCUBSGO · Guru

Dusters OT order

McDavid
Kane
Draisaitl
Voracek
Zuccarello
Palmieri
Doughty
Gostisbehere
Phaneuf
Green

Zach6668 · Guru

Ok you guys. I've run the number. They have been sufficiently crunched. Here are the official first round predictions:

Toronto Rocket over Injured Reseruve in 7 games
KC Reserves over asdfjkl; in 6 games
Iowa Crop Dusters over Broadway in 5 games
Whalers over Newmarket Hurricanes in 7 games

Data:

Green means the first team listed is the favorite. Red means the second team listed is the favorite. Each row is a single game.

(1) Without injuries factored in:

TOR	ASD	ICD	NHM
vs	vs	vs	vs
IR	KCR	BWY	WHA
0.132	-0.087	1.468	-0.074
1.410	0.661	0.267	0.805
-0.152	-0.356	1.246	0.064
1.459	-0.972	0.892	0.540
1.143	-0.578	0.621	0.330
-0.500	-1.762	0.044	-1.286
1.930	-0.525	2.974	-0.240

(2) With injuries factored in:

TOR	ASD	ICD	NHM
vs	vs	vs	vs
IR	KCR	BWY	WHA
0.113	-0.087	1.432	-0.362
1.128	0.661	0.489	0.412
-0.362	-0.356	1.251	-0.108
1.459	-0.972	0.894	0.324
0.933	-0.578	0.717	0.219
-0.737	-1.846	0.076	-1.451
2.068	-0.525	2.938	-0.382

Zach6668 · Guru

I don't know what the deal is with Biatch's fancy stats. I have him as the dog almost non-stop, but he goes out and puts up 98 points still. I've checked and double checked my spreadsheets for errors, but there just aren't any. I don't get it.

Zach6668 · Guru

Rockets OT Order:

1. T.J. Oshie
2. Artemi Panarin
3. Aleksander Barkov
4. Nikolaj Ehlers
5. Marcus Johansson
6. P.K. Subban
7. Jordan Eberle
8. Rasmus Ristolainen
9. Nathan Beaulieu
10. Derek Forbort

Zach6668 · Guru

This first round is pretty interesting. It's basically everybody's weakest round. Testing the depths of our rosters. Must be lots of shorter nights. I know I'm stuck with my worst forward 3 times unless I get someone back from injury soon.

Zach6668 · Guru

No afternoon games at all tomorrow is a hell of a bummer. But it'll be an intense, action-packed 7:00 to 1:00. LOL.

GOCUBSGO · Guru

Predicted to win in 5. Means I'll be losing in 7.

Zach6668 · Guru

GOCUBSGO wrote:
Predicted to win in 5. Means I'll be losing in 7.

You're somehow a 3-goal favorite in game 7. How is that even possible? LOL.

GOCUBSGO · Guru

Zach6668 wrote:
GOCUBSGO wrote:
Predicted to win in 5. Means I'll be losing in 7.
You're somehow a 3-goal favorite in game 7. How is that even possible? LOL.

Wow I didn't even notice that one. That has to be a non goalie game for John.

I'm obviously exaggerating, but I feel like I always lose to teams I should beat. 7 game series is a lot different than a random game night though.

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

1. Ovie
2. Benn
3. Toews
4. Bergeron
5. Zetts
6. Little
7. Jones
8. McDonough
9. Ekblad
10. Johnson

Broadway · Guru

GOCUBSGO wrote:
Zach6668 wrote:
GOCUBSGO wrote:
Predicted to win in 5. Means I'll be losing in 7.
You're somehow a 3-goal favorite in game 7. How is that even possible? LOL.
Wow I didn't even notice that one. That has to be a non goalie game for John.
I'm obviously exaggerating, but I feel like I always lose to teams I should beat. 7 game series is a lot different than a random game night though.

No goalies and pretty much no defense. Forwards are decent though.

Here's how I see this game coming down from a best case Broadway scenario:

Josh goalies give up 4 (not impossible)

Josh's D is kept quiet (certainly possible especially since any team south of Burns and Karlsson is never entitled to any FCHL points on D)

My forwards out perform McDavid, Kane and company (Not impossible since I think I have 5 or 6 forwards north of .4 FCHL PPG)

With the above happening, I probably lose in OT

-- Edited by Broadway on Saturday 4th of March 2017 11:56:28 AM

-- Edited by Broadway on Saturday 4th of March 2017 12:17:10 PM

-- Edited by Broadway on Saturday 4th of March 2017 12:19:45 PM

Zach6668 · Guru

I think I'm going to get mildly lucky, at least, with respect to injuries. Okposo seems to be my only forward out for the opening of the playoffs. He's week-to-week. I had him slated in for the first three games, so that could be a stumbling block, but if I can get through those, he wasn't expected to play anyways.

Now Letang, that's another matter. I need him back ASAP.

rinswun · Guru

Broadway wrote:
GOCUBSGO wrote:
Zach6668 wrote:
GOCUBSGO wrote:
Predicted to win in 5. Means I'll be losing in 7.
You're somehow a 3-goal favorite in game 7. How is that even possible? LOL.
Wow I didn't even notice that one. That has to be a non goalie game for John.
I'm obviously exaggerating, but I feel like I always lose to teams I should beat. 7 game series is a lot different than a random game night though.
No goalies and pretty much no defense. Forwards are decent though.
Here's how I see this game coming down from a best case Broadway scenario:

Josh goalies give up 4 (not impossible)
Josh's D is kept quiet (certainly possible especially since any team south of Burns and Karlsson is never entitled to any FCHL points on D)
My forwards out perform McDavid, Kane and company (Not impossible since I think I have 5 or 6 forwards north of .4 FCHL PPG)
With the above happening, I probably lose in OT

-- Edited by Broadway on Saturday 4th of March 2017 11:56:28 AM

It's FCHL points John, God!

Broadway · Guru

Message to any administrator that will listen (Zach?

). Can you please correct Ollies post from above to correct the atrocious error. I already corrected the original post. I would like the atrocity stricken from the record

GOCUBSGO · Guru

I'm with Zach. No afternoon games is the worst. Playing some poker on a lazy Saturday and I want some hockey to sweat.

Zach6668 · Guru

Broadway wrote:
Message to any administrator that will listen (Zach?

). Can you please correct Ollies post from above to correct the atrocious error. I already corrected the original post. I would like the atrocity stricken from the record

Dunno what you're talking about.

Broadway · Guru

Zach6668 wrote:
Broadway wrote:
Message to any administrator that will listen (Zach?

). Can you please correct Ollies post from above to correct the atrocious error. I already corrected the original post. I would like the atrocity stricken from the record

Dunno what you're talking about.

You missed one ;)

Zach6668 · Guru

Broadway wrote:
Zach6668 wrote:
Broadway wrote:
Message to any administrator that will listen (Zach?

). Can you please correct Ollies post from above to correct the atrocious error. I already corrected the original post. I would like the atrocity stricken from the record

Dunno what you're talking about.
You missed one ;)

One what? :D

MLP · Guru

fck,+1 on the afternoon games. turns out im home+chilled with time on my hands, i sure could use a game to follow.

oh well, i guess ill work on my OT list for 5 hours.

Zach, is it straight NHL points, FCHL points or whatver the hell you+John are talking about?

jeff · Guru

I am glad there were no afternoon games. Totally almost missed the lineup. Good luck biatch.

Zach6668 · Guru

MLP wrote:
fck,+1 on the afternoon games. turns out im home+chilled with time on my hands, i sure could use a game to follow.

oh well, i guess ill work on my OT list for 5 hours.

Zach, is it straight NHL points, FCHL points or whatver the hell you+John are talking about?

fchl

Broadway · Guru

I work Saturdays this time of year and Loveeeeeeeeeeeee afternoon games to make the work day more pleasant

really bummed there is none today

Safe to say, I'm not leaving home tonight

I have "Clockwork Orange" all setup in the Blue Ray. So it will be a movie + the action in FCHL/league that shall not be named

jeff · Guru

OT:
Nikita Kucherov
Jonathan Huberdeau
Thomas Vanek
Brayden Schenn
Kevin Hayes
James Neal
Kevin Shattenkirk
Duncan Keith
Michael Del Zotto
Jack Johnson

jeff · Guru

My lineups are pretty good through the first round. I probably have a little bit of an edge, but I'd bet it's not better than like 60%.

Zach6668 · Guru

It wouldn't be so bad that there was no hockey on, but it's too cold to leave the house.