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Post Info TOPIC: Gameday 75 - February 27, 2018


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Gameday 75 - February 27, 2018
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Gameday 75 - February 27, 2018

Whalers vs. Toronto Rocket
Iowa Crop Dusters vs. Blindsides
Royal Oak Fearsome Beavers vs. Tulane Flyers
BlackDevilHawks vs. Newmarket Hurricanes
Lethbridge Golden Seals vs. Lost Cause
asdfjkl; vs. The Ales
Broadway vs. KC Reserves
Injured Reserve vs. Iowa Crop Dusters



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RankTeam                                     GPWLTPTS
1^-Lethbridge Golden Seals7954250108
2^-Toronto Rocket7952261105
3^-KC Reserves794631294
4*-Whalers7950272102
5*-BlackDevilHawks794929199
6*-Lost Cause794830197
7*-Iowa Crop Dusters784234286
8Injured Reserve793937381
9asdfjkl;793939179
10e-Broadway793840177
11e-Newmarket Hurricanes793244367
12e-Royal Oak Fearsome Beavers792850157
13e-Tulane Flyers792551353
14e-Blindsides792157143
15e-The Ales791861036

*-clinched a playoff spot
^-clinched division
e-eliminated from playoff contention

 

Final playoff spot:

  • IR wins or ties, they get in.
  • IR loses, asdfjkl; loses or ties, IR gets in.
  • asdfjkl; wins, IR loses, asdfjkl; gets in*. 

One of these teams will face the Golden Seals in round 1.

*asdfjkl; wins the tie breaker on the strength of having more wins in this scenario

 

Matchups Set:

  • #2 Toronto Rocket vs #7 Iowa Crop Dusters
  • #3 KC Reserves vs #6 Lost Cause
  • #4 Whalers vs #5 BlackDevilHawks

 

Places 10 through 15 are all set in stone. Lottery odds can be found elsewhere, but will be posted in their entirety following the regular season.



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Cmon Josh!!!

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Will be interesting to see where some Lost Cause lineup regulars and bench denizens end up today. Evander Kane, Zach Smith, Gustav Nyquist all rumored to be on the move today...Ian Cole already moved once and could move again.

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Ian Cole to Columbus, I don't hate it...don't have any other Jackets players.

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Evander Kane to San Jose, makes my trade for Couture look a little less smart but Kane's playoff games go from 9 to 15 even though I'm doubled up now.

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Adam wrote:

Evander Kane to San Jose, makes my trade for Couture look a little less smart but Kane's playoff games go from 9 to 15 even though I'm doubled up now.


 I can run a before/after analysis for you when I get home.



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Cool, thank you! I think it's pretty close, but if Kane ends up with Thornton that could get interesting.

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Kane on BUF:

LC2.8382.5493.250

 

Kane on SJS:

LC2.8902.6103.304

 

(Round 1/2/3 average scores.)

 

 

(In doing this, I discovered a bug in my system - the new teams only work once the player has played a game for a second (or third, etc) team. So I won't be able to project full playoff scores until each traded player has played a game.)



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Nice! So he got more valuable, but I'm sure that doesn't account for me being doubled on the Sharks now. I'm sure he'll get into games.

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Thanks for taking a look!

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Adam wrote:

Nice! So he got more valuable, but I'm sure that doesn't account for me being doubled on the Sharks now. I'm sure he'll get into games.


It accounts for everything.

 

The spreadsheet takes your top six available forwards (and 4 d and goalies) for each game night and just uses pool ppg from this season to project a total score for each game. I just showed you the average scores for each round, but I have projected score for each game.

Basically, the only way it increases is if Kane’s new schedule puts him in games above lesser players. So he plays more now. And knocked out worse players.

 

i suppose maybe there’s potential his true PPPG is lower on the Sharks? maybe he plays less and gets less pp time? i don’t know. Just as likely he gets a bump by playing with better players?

 

I don’t think there’s any downside to having two players on the same team. 



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Zach6668 wrote:

I don’t think there’s any downside to having two players on the same team. 


 I've always felt like it hurts your depth for the evening. If some opposing goalie gets hot and pitches a shutout, then you have two forwards hurt by that instead of just one.



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I'm pleased Danny O'Regan is reuniting with Eichel. Could be gold in that trade.

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rinswun wrote:

I'm pleased Danny O'Regan is reuniting with Eichel. Could be gold in that trade.


 I'm pretty happy about it too, he's going to be great for the Amerks and that ship has been floundering for over a month now. Badly needed some top six help, probably more than they got.



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Adam wrote:
Zach6668 wrote:

I don’t think there’s any downside to having two players on the same team. 


 I've always felt like it hurts your depth for the evening. If some opposing goalie gets hot and pitches a shutout, then you have two forwards hurt by that instead of just one.


Why would it be more likely that two players underperform their historic pool ppg (which already accounts for playing against good and bad goalie performances), than overperform it? IMO, it’s just as likely the two players get hot and score a bunch. 



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Zach6668 wrote:
Adam wrote:
Zach6668 wrote:

I don’t think there’s any downside to having two players on the same team. 


 I've always felt like it hurts your depth for the evening. If some opposing goalie gets hot and pitches a shutout, then you have two forwards hurt by that instead of just one.


Why would it be more likely that two players underperform their historic pool ppg (which already accounts for playing against good and bad goalie performances), than overperform it? IMO, it’s just as likely the two players get hot and score a bunch. 


 You're talking statistics and I'm talking superstitions and what-ifs. Not good bedfellows.

I completely agree with you, just saying that my mind tends to stray towards the negative when I'm doing lineup projections.



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Haha fair enough. I get that.

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Adam wrote:
rinswun wrote:

I'm pleased Danny O'Regan is reuniting with Eichel. Could be gold in that trade.


 I'm pretty happy about it too, he's going to be great for the Amerks and that ship has been floundering for over a month now. Badly needed some top six help, probably more than they got.


 Haha, he'll surely get a good look in Buffalo given he's the lone playing return for Kane?!



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rinswun wrote:
Adam wrote:
rinswun wrote:

I'm pleased Danny O'Regan is reuniting with Eichel. Could be gold in that trade.


 I'm pretty happy about it too, he's going to be great for the Amerks and that ship has been floundering for over a month now. Badly needed some top six help, probably more than they got.


 Haha, he'll surely get a good look in Buffalo given he's the lone playing return for Kane?!


 I wouldn't think he will this year, our season is very much over with. Next year for sure.



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But who replaces Kane in the lineup?

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Zach6668 wrote:

But who replaces Kane in the lineup?


 Same guy who replaced him the two games he was scratched so he wouldn't get hurt, most likely. I think Baptiste is the player they called up most recently. Scott Wilson has been slotting in on the 2nd line and Jordan Nolan has been playing regularly now as well. So yeah, we're tanking the rest of the way.



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Fack. Josh has no goalies tonight against Duane.

Rich also has his A lineup tonight. I am a significant underdog to make the playoffs.

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Rich has an A lineup???

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Zach6668 wrote:

Rich has an A lineup???


 Hah!



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These Ales are hot guys.

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rich wrote:

These Ales are hot guys.


 Perfect timing



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I think having 2 players from the same team in your lineup increases variance for that night, if not long term expectation. If you are the better team in a matchup, variance is bad.



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Dubey wrote:

I think having 2 players from the same team in your lineup increases variance for that night, if not long term expectation. If you are the better team in a matchup, variance is bad.


 That's how I feel too, better way of expressing it, thank you.



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Dubey wrote:

I think having 2 players from the same team in your lineup increases variance for that night, if not long term expectation. If you are the better team in a matchup, variance is bad.


 Intuitively, I think this is true, but I'd be curious to see data (not that it would exist specifically for our pool, lol)... I feel like there'd be a difference between players on one line vs players who almost never play together too.



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I have two good players on Bruins, they don't play on the same line. I figure that Boston will score at least one goal a game, so I have a pretty good chance that I will get at least an assist from that game. Nothing to get excited about, but it means I won't bench one over a similar player on another team.

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I get into trouble with Ehlers/Perrault. Both are kinda fringe top 6, so often I get down to one spot for both of them and have to decide.

Whatever I guess, the numbers don’t really change.

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Zach6668 wrote:

Gameday 75 - February 27, 2018

Whalers vs. Toronto Rocket
Iowa Crop Dusters vs. Blindsides
Royal Oak Fearsome Beavers vs. Tulane Flyers
BlackDevilHawks vs. Newmarket Hurricanes
Lethbridge Golden Seals vs. Lost Cause
asdfjkl; vs. The Ales
Broadway vs. KC Reserves
Injured Reserve vs. Iowa Crop Dusters


Update: 8:40 pm ET

asdfjkl; 1.0 vs. The Ales 1.0
Injured Reserve 1.0 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters (-0.5)



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Dan I'm knocking you out. Sorry son.

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Update: 9:50 pm ET

asdfjkl; 1.5 vs. The Ales 0.5
Injured Reserve 4.0 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters 0.0



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:(

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At least I get the honour of first choice in this reject dannyg sucks tourney

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Ottawa_Biatch wrote:

At least I get the honour of first choice in this reject dannyg sucks tourney


 First choice of a bye...



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Whalers destroying Toronto Rocket!

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MLP wrote:

Whalers destroying Toronto Rocket!


 Big time beat down.



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I highly doubt I make it until the end of the late games tonight, but first thing tomorrow morning (11 am), I'll get everything ready for the playoffs, which start Thursday.

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John's first missed lineup of the season?

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Huh. That's unlike him.

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I guess ensuring that #6 pick was important.

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1g and 1a from McDavid/Draisaitl (on 2 GA against SJ) and Josh will catch up with Duane... 2.5 back, and has OT.

Biatch has a fighting chance here. If anyone can explode for goals in the third, it's McDavid.

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Now a PP goal... McDavid from Draisaitl would put the Dusters in the lead...

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Gameday 75 - February 27, 2018

Whalers 3.5 vs. Toronto Rocket 2.5
Iowa Crop Dusters 3.5 vs. Blindsides 2.0
Royal Oak Fearsome Beavers (-1.0) vs. Tulane Flyers 0.0
BlackDevilHawks 1.0 vs. Newmarket Hurricanes 3.0
Lethbridge Golden Seals 5.0 vs. Lost Cause 3.0
asdfjkl; 3.5 vs. The Ales 1.0
Broadway 2.5 vs. KC Reserves 5.0
Injured Reserve 6.0 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters 3.5

 

Missed lineup for John. He would have lost anyways, I think... or gone to OT and maybe won. Doesn't matter, no impact on standings either way.

 

Injured Reserve clinch the 8th and final playoff spot. 

 

See Round 1, Game 1 thread for all the playoff info.



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Glad there was no affect on the standings

I was pretty confident I set my lineup a week ago for the last game but maybe I posted thinking our last game was Sunday because there where 6 games

I always re-check the day of but I checked out after I got eliminated from the playoffs. No excuse for that

Sorry to all



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