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Wow. I saw your projections. I think we're close. I didn't know you had no goalies, though. That's something.

Pretty much, we each have a couple games where we have the edge, and then there's a couple games that are coinflips.

However, I have not factored Laine's injury into it. I'll do a more detailed analysis tomorrow night or Saturday morning.

I'm in trouble. Goldobin doesn't play.

mckinnon
landeskog
monahana
idgaf

What's the latest on your injuries, Dubey?

Laine - out for up to 2 weeks
Karlsson - maybe back for Saturday, probably all games after
Pesce - out for the season
Tkachuk - back soon?
McCabe - out for the season?
Aho2 - sent to the minors

 

 

That look about right?

I'm not expecting Tkachuk back for this series, but I honestly don't know. There's been no updates on him and I'm pretty sure it's a concussion.

Other than that, looks about right. no idea about Karlsson for Saturday. I expect he'll play but I also expect Ottawa will (as they should) give him as much time as he needs.

Btw, this series will determine the true winner of the Nylander for Panarin trade.

Nylander plays 4, Panarin plays 6. Advantage: Zach :D

So, if Zach and I played in the semis, I would have won 4-1, thanks to an OT victory in game 3. However, he would have won game 6 and 7 had the series gone that far.

Congrats guys, and GL!

My charity is going to be the asdfjkl; organization because they are going to need all the help they can get after I totally destroy the franchise.

Jay wrote:

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My charity is going to be the asdfjkl; organization because they are going to need all the help they can get after I totally destroy the franchise.

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 lol.

 

I think you guys should play a best of 17 series, because Biatch is probably the only person that hates the FCHL more than me today. :)

Zach6668 wrote:

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Interestingly, I think a lack of Laine hurts Ehlers production to some extent, so some minor mitigation there. And, on the plus side, Jets don't play until game 3 in this series, so you're not missing him in games 1 and 2. He may heal up quick and sneak back in having only missed a game or two.

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Do you actually have a formula that factors in things like Ehler's expected points with a Laine injury or are you just speculating?

The reason I think Ehlers numbers would suffer is because he's feeding Laine often. Don't think he gets as many assists feeding, say, Mathieu Perreault or whoever would fill in on that line.

Executive Summary:

Rockets with a good edge in games 1 and a great edge in game 6, plus smaller edges in games 2 and 4. Seals with good edges in games 3 and 5. Game 7 is a tiny edge to the Seals - essentially a coin flip, the closest game in the series.

Roster comparisons show it's a series of top end talent vs depth for both forwards and defense. Forward edge: Even; Defense edge: Seals.

Goaltending edge goes to the Rockets as Seals have 2 games with no goalies and the Rockets feature the best set in the series 4 times. Edge: Rockets.

 

Projection:

Laine is back, Karlsson doesn't miss another game, Aho stays in the minors (because I can't program this **** with two Ahos). Pesce, McCabe, and Tkachuk are assumed to be out for the year. For the Rockets, assume Reilly Smith is out, Johnasson, Rask, and Pacioretty are out for the series.

I think Tkachuk and Smith could return at some point, so let's just call that a wash.

Rockets will have a good shot at opening up a 2-0 lead as the Seals, inexplicably, lead off the series with 2 no goalie games. That said, they make up for a lot of that deficit by having better skaters. The Seals superior defense is on display as Barrie, Hedman, and Karlsson should be in both of these games. The Rockets, meanwhile, get Alex Ovechkin for both of these games (he sits out until Game 7 after), but do have to dip into their depth forwards likely dressing Craig Smith or Jeff Skinner in Game 1, and Skinner and Okposo or Gaborik in game 2. Still, the Rockets have edges of 0.844 and 0.392 in the first two.

Game 3 tilts back towards the Seals, who have an edge of 0.525. After going without their top two forwards in games 1 and 2, Malkin and Laine re-enter the lineup. Laine plays all remaining games and Malkin plays 4 of 5.

Game 4 is close to a coin flip. Rockets have a 0.210 edge.

Game 5 produces the largest Seals edge of the series at 0.761 while game 6 is the biggest edge for either team with the Rockets holding a 1.323 projected goal advantage.

If this series makes it to 7, all bets are off. The closest game of the series on paper, where the Seals hold a mere 0.117 edge. Both teams dress 6 of their top 7 forwards. Rockets answer with 4 of their top 5 defense, while the Seals may only be able to dress 3 D, though all formidable.

If I'm forced to make a prediction, it's Rockets in 6.

 

Forwards:

Ex. GP	Player	P-PPG		P-PPG	Player	Ex. GP
4/4	Evgeni Malkin	0.943	>	0.845	Alex Ovechkin	3/3
5/5	Patrik Laine	0.760	>	0.750	Phil Kessel	4/4
3/3	Mikko Rantanen	0.733	>	0.697	Aleksander Barkov	6/6
4/4	Jack Eichel	0.655	<	0.627	Artemi Panarin	6/6
5/5	Sebastian Aho	0.621	>	0.562	Nikolaj Ehlers	5/5
5/5	David Perron	0.603	>	0.554	Yanni Gourde	4/4
4/4	William Nylander	0.466	<	0.541	Jordan Eberle	6/6
2/4	Jake Guentzel	0.439	<	0.464	Craig Smith	5/6
3/5	Alex Galchenyuk	0.405	<	0.446	Jeff Skinner	2/5
3/7	Kevin Labanc	0.362	<	0.434	Mathieu Perreault	0/5
1/3	Brandon Saad	0.320	<	0.366	Kyle Okposo	1/4
0/4	Jason Pominville	0.274	<	0.348	Marian Gaborik	0/5
1/1	Andrew Cogliano	0.250
1/6	Frank Vatrano	0.172			Injured
				0.621	Reilly Smith	0
				0.422	Max Pacioretty	0
	Injured			0.328	Marcus Johansson	0
0	Matthew Tkachuk	0.537		0.317	Victor Rask	0

 

Expected games based solely on pool PPG.

Seals boast a little better at the top end, though the top 4 are reasonably close. Malkin's edge over Ovechkin is rather susbstantial though. Seals top 6 all over 0.600, which is remarkable. Rockets, however, feature a little better depth outside of the top 6, with Eberle, Smith, and Skinner. Also worth noting that only 8 forward slots will be filled by sub-0.500 forwards on the Rockets, while 15 sub-0.500 forwards dress for the Seals.

It's a battle of top heavy talent vs depth up front.

 

Defense:

Ex. GP	Player	P-PPG		P-PPG	Player	Ex. GP
3/3	Tyson Barrie	0.533	>	0.459	P.K. Subban	6/6
4/4	Victor Hedman	0.500	>	0.393	Dougie Hamilton	6/6
5/5	Erik Karlsson	0.485	>	0.352	Kris Letang	4/4
6/6	Zach Werenski	0.331	>	0.320	Rasmus Ristolainen	4/4
1/1	Hampus Lindholm	0.311	<	0.314	Alex Goligoski	4/6
5/6	Mattias Ekholm	0.285	<	0.286	Nate Schmidt	2/4
1/3	Jan Rutta	0.245	<	0.281	Marc-Edouard Vlasic	1/7
1/3	Joel Edmundson	0.192	<	0.274	Tyler Myers	1/5
				0.162	Niklas Kronwall	0/7
	Injured			0.144	Brenden Dillon	0/7
0	Jake McCabe
1	Brett Pesce
1	Sebastian Aho

 

Defense tilts in the Seals favor at the top end as well. Barrie/Subban not a huge mismatch, but the Rockets drop off considerably to Hamilton/Letang while the Seals counter with Hedman and Karlsson. The next 3 slots are a wash and then the Rockets show a slight edge in the depth department with Vlasic and Myers as the #7 and #8 d-men at ~0.275ish.

The Rockets benefit from some good coverage at the top, however. With Subban and Hamilton both appearing in 6 games. Barrie and Hedman only see 3 and 4 respectively. Rockets fill 24 of 28 d-spots with >0.300 skaters (top 5), while the Seals only fill 19 of 28 with their (better) top 5 (>0.300). It's also worth noting the Seals will likely be dressing 3 defensemen in games 6 and 7 unless the Aho defender gets called back up (he can fill in for both games).

 

Goaltending:

Dallas	-1.358	<	-1.247	Los Angeles
Philadelphia	-1.487	>	-1.514	New Jersey

LA is the best goalie set by a non-trivial margin. Backup goalies are basically a wash, though.

The Rockets pick up some major points here as the Seals are without goalies for Games 1 and 2. 

Dallas could see 4 starts, Philly 1 while the Rockets will get 4 starts out of the LA Kings and 3 out of the Devils.

 

 

 

Good luck Zach! Nice write up! About what I expected.

One thing that works in my favour is current form. Some of my players (Laine, Malkin, Rantanen, Hedman, Barrie), have been absolutely lights out over the last couple months, exceeding their season averages by a decent clip.

Zach6668 wrote:

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Executive Summary:

Rockets with a good edge in games 1 and a great edge in game 6, plus smaller edges in games 2 and 4. Seals with good edges in games 3 and 5. Game 7 is a tiny edge to the Seals - essentially a coin flip, the closest game in the series.

Roster comparisons show it's a series of top end talent vs depth for both forwards and defense. Forward edge: Even; Defense edge: Seals.

Goaltending edge goes to the Rockets as Seals have 2 games with no goalies and the Rockets feature the best set in the series 4 times. Edge: Rockets.

 

Projection:

Laine is back, Karlsson doesn't miss another game, Aho stays in the minors (because I can't program this **** with two Ahos). Pesce, McCabe, and Tkachuk are assumed to be out for the year. For the Rockets, assume Reilly Smith is out, Johnasson, Rask, and Pacioretty are out for the series.

I think Tkachuk and Smith could return at some point, so let's just call that a wash.

Rockets will have a good shot at opening up a 2-0 lead as the Seals, inexplicably, lead off the series with 2 no goalie games. That said, they make up for a lot of that deficit by having better skaters. The Seals superior defense is on display as Barrie, Hedman, and Karlsson should be in both of these games. The Rockets, meanwhile, get Alex Ovechkin for both of these games (he sits out until Game 7 after), but do have to dip into their depth forwards likely dressing Craig Smith or Jeff Skinner in Game 1, and Skinner and Okposo or Gaborik in game 2. Still, the Rockets have edges of 0.844 and 0.392 in the first two.

Game 3 tilts back towards the Seals, who have an edge of 0.525. After going without their top two forwards in games 1 and 2, Malkin and Laine re-enter the lineup. Laine plays all remaining games and Malkin plays 4 of 5.

Game 4 is close to a coin flip. Rockets have a 0.210 edge.

Game 5 produces the largest Seals edge of the series at 0.761 while game 6 is the biggest edge for either team with the Rockets holding a 1.323 projected goal advantage.

If this series makes it to 7, all bets are off. The closest game of the series on paper, where the Seals hold a mere 0.117 edge. Both teams dress 6 of their top 7 forwards. Rockets answer with 4 of their top 5 defense, while the Seals may only be able to dress 3 D, though all formidable.

If I'm forced to make a prediction, it's Rockets in 6.

 

Forwards:

Ex. GP	Player	P-PPG		P-PPG	Player	Ex. GP
4/4	Evgeni Malkin	0.943	>	0.845	Alex Ovechkin	3/3
5/5	Patrik Laine	0.760	>	0.750	Phil Kessel	4/4
3/3	Mikko Rantanen	0.733	>	0.697	Aleksander Barkov	6/6
4/4	Jack Eichel	0.655	<	0.627	Artemi Panarin	6/6
5/5	Sebastian Aho	0.621	>	0.562	Nikolaj Ehlers	5/5
5/5	David Perron	0.603	>	0.554	Yanni Gourde	4/4
4/4	William Nylander	0.466	<	0.541	Jordan Eberle	6/6
2/4	Jake Guentzel	0.439	<	0.464	Craig Smith	5/6
3/5	Alex Galchenyuk	0.405	<	0.446	Jeff Skinner	2/5
3/7	Kevin Labanc	0.362	<	0.434	Mathieu Perreault	0/5
1/3	Brandon Saad	0.320	<	0.366	Kyle Okposo	1/4
0/4	Jason Pominville	0.274	<	0.348	Marian Gaborik	0/5
1/1	Andrew Cogliano	0.250
1/6	Frank Vatrano	0.172			Injured
				0.621	Reilly Smith	0
				0.422	Max Pacioretty	0
	Injured			0.328	Marcus Johansson	0
0	Matthew Tkachuk	0.537		0.317	Victor Rask	0

 

Expected games based solely on pool PPG.

Seals boast a little better at the top end, though the top 4 are reasonably close. Malkin's edge over Ovechkin is rather susbstantial though. Seals top 6 all over 0.600, which is remarkable. Rockets, however, feature a little better depth outside of the top 6, with Eberle, Smith, and Skinner. Also worth noting that only 8 forward slots will be filled by sub-0.500 forwards on the Rockets, while 15 sub-0.500 forwards dress for the Seals.

It's a battle of top heavy talent vs depth up front.

 

Defense:

Ex. GP	Player	P-PPG		P-PPG	Player	Ex. GP
3/3	Tyson Barrie	0.533	>	0.459	P.K. Subban	6/6
4/4	Victor Hedman	0.500	>	0.393	Dougie Hamilton	6/6
5/5	Erik Karlsson	0.485	>	0.352	Kris Letang	4/4
6/6	Zach Werenski	0.331	>	0.320	Rasmus Ristolainen	4/4
1/1	Hampus Lindholm	0.311	<	0.314	Alex Goligoski	4/6
5/6	Mattias Ekholm	0.285	<	0.286	Nate Schmidt	2/4
1/3	Jan Rutta	0.245	<	0.281	Marc-Edouard Vlasic	1/7
1/3	Joel Edmundson	0.192	<	0.274	Tyler Myers	1/5
				0.162	Niklas Kronwall	0/7
	Injured			0.144	Brenden Dillon	0/7
0	Jake McCabe
1	Brett Pesce
1	Sebastian Aho

 

Defense tilts in the Seals favor at the top end as well. Barrie/Subban not a huge mismatch, but the Rockets drop off considerably to Hamilton/Letang while the Seals counter with Hedman and Karlsson. The next 3 slots are a wash and then the Rockets show a slight edge in the depth department with Vlasic and Myers as the #7 and #8 d-men at ~0.275ish.

The Rockets benefit from some good coverage at the top, however. With Subban and Hamilton both appearing in 6 games. Barrie and Hedman only see 3 and 4 respectively. Rockets fill 24 of 28 d-spots with >0.300 skaters (top 5), while the Seals only fill 19 of 28 with their (better) top 5 (>0.300). It's also worth noting the Seals will likely be dressing 3 defensemen in games 6 and 7 unless the Aho defender gets called back up (he can fill in for both games).

 

Goaltending:

Dallas	-1.358	<	-1.247	Los Angeles
Philadelphia	-1.487	>	-1.514	New Jersey

LA is the best goalie set by a non-trivial margin. Backup goalies are basically a wash, though.

The Rockets pick up some major points here as the Seals are without goalies for Games 1 and 2. 

Dallas could see 4 starts, Philly 1 while the Rockets will get 4 starts out of the LA Kings and 3 out of the Devils.

 

 

 

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Executive summary for msg memorial:

either team in 4, so I don’t need to dress lineups 5-7 

Getting anxious. 97 minutes until puck drop!

Biatch, Sean Monahan isn't playing. Done for the year.

Swapping Nate Schmidt in for Goligoski so I can have someone to sweat in the 3:00 game. Lol.

What else should go on it? It'd be nice if we could find something useful to fill in the bottom left areas.

Would player tiers be interesting?

What else do we have?

Seems like there's been a decent number of goals, but a whole lot of nothing going on for all four teams in action tonight.

Well, the Seals are in the clubhouse with a -0.5.

I've got a period of Subban left and three full periods of my goalies against the explosive Connor McDavid and the Oilers.

I'll need to get to -1.0 for the Seals to pull off this come from behind victory since I've got the OT.

Hurricanes hang on. Will win game 1 in OT (1-1).

Yup. You're on pace for that! (2 in the first period!)