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Zach6668 · Guru

Round 2, Game 4 - March 21, 2017

Zach6668 · Guru

1. Sidney Crosby
2. T. J. Oshie
3. Artemi Panarin
4. Logan Couture
4. Jeff Skinner
6. Aleksander Barkov
7. Dougie Hamilton
8. Rasmus Ristolainen
9. Jared Spurgeon
10. Mark Streit
G. San Jose

-- Edited by Zach6668 on Tuesday 21st of March 2017 02:53:14 PM

-- Edited by Zach6668 on Tuesday 21st of March 2017 06:44:47 PM

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

Ovie
Toews
Little
Monaghan
Thornton
Zetterberg
Mcmdonough
Johnson
Brodin
Kindl

GOCUBSGO · Guru

1. Patrick Kane
2. Joe Pavelski
3. Kyle Palmieri
4. Jakub Voracek
5. Mats Zuccarello
6. Justin Faulk
7. Shayne Gostisbehere
8. Marian Hossa
9. Mike Green
10. Dion Phaneuf

Jay · Turning Back the Clock

1. Brad Marchand
2. Vladimir Tarasenko
3. Max Pacioretty
4. Brent Burns
5. Mikko Koivu
6. Wayne Simmonds
7. Torey Krug
8. John Carlson
9. JT Miller
10. Zdeno Chara

MLP · Guru

cant help but notice that Biatch just keeps putting up solid scores (nearly?) every night.
Well done Dan, analytics certainly were wrong about you. Or, you're just even luckier than we thought! :)

GL guys, winners seem to keep up big scores, Im not feeling at all like I would have been worthy of this final 4. Good show.

Zach6668 · Guru

MLP wrote:
cant help but notice that Biatch just keeps putting up solid scores (nearly?) every night.
Well done Dan, analytics certainly were wrong about you. Or, you're just even luckier than we thought! :)

GL guys, winners seem to keep up big scores, Im not feeling at all like I would have been worthy of this final 4. Good show.

I don't really get it. His projected scores, which are solely based on the performance of his players this season, are always like a goal less than everyone else.

At first I was like, oh, did I spell Ovechkin wrong? Maybe it's missing his big gun, but I can't find anything wrong with the spreadsheet.

So I have 2 possible scenarios I can think of.

1 - Biatch's players universally slumped for much of the regular season, but he got lucky to win a lot early on - he ended up with a solid average score in the end, but it started out quite low, despite him winning games - so I think it's possible his guys turned it around at the right time, and later in the season, so maybe those guys are playing a ~3.5 average score level now, but the stats are skewed by massive slumps previously in the season so it looks like his average score should be ~2.5.

2 - The second scenario is that my model is flawless and Biatch is just running hot as hell. :D

But like, on paper, his team looks strong as hell. I think a big part was Toews was not scoring at all earlier in the season, now he's probably the hottest scorer in the league. Thornton picked it up quite a bit since Biatch traded for him too, I think. Probably others.

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

Is your projected scores based on PPG? Maybe there are some other stats better then PPG?

Zach6668 · Guru

Ottawa_Biatch wrote:
Is your projected scores based on PPG? Maybe there are some other stats better then PPG?

Yes, but points are the only thing we use to decide winners and losers, so, theoretically, in the long run, it should even out.

It's definitely a crude guess, because hot streaks, matchups, etc play in to what, say, a bookie would set a line at, but that wouldn't explain consistently performing above expectation for a long period of time.

Addng Toews right before he got super hot probably explains a large portion of this all, tbh.

Zach6668 · Guru

Toews playing at 0.889 since our trade deadline.

Zach6668 · Guru

Good to see Jay getting all this goal scoring out of the way today.

Jay · Turning Back the Clock

Zach6668 wrote:
Good to see Jay getting all this goal scoring out of the way today.

Yes, just like your guys found their scoring touch on non game night Friday and then erupted on Saturday and Sunday. :)

Zach6668 · Guru

Jay wrote:
Zach6668 wrote:
Good to see Jay getting all this goal scoring out of the way today.
Yes, just like your guys found their scoring touch on non game night Friday and then erupted on Saturday and Sunday. :)

Touche ;)

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

Good luck tonight Josh.

GOCUBSGO · Guru

Ottawa_Biatch wrote:
Good luck tonight Josh.

You too bud. Hoping my offense shows up tonight. Don't think I have a good enough team to come back from 3-1 down so I'd love to avoid that.

Zach6668 · Guru

It would greatly simplify my life if one of my top 7 forwards came down with some sort of brief illness in the next couple hours.

Fenxis · Guru

Ottawa_Biatch wrote:
Is your projected scores based on PPG? Maybe there are some other stats better then PPG?

PPG last 15 games?

Zach6668 · Guru

Zach6668 wrote:
It would greatly simplify my life if one of my top 7 forwards came down with some sort of brief illness in the next couple hours.

Think I've narrowed down my healthy scratch to either Barkov or Ehlers. This is stupid. Why are my top 7 forwards all relatively on fire?

FCHL points in last 10 gp:

Crosby 9.5
Panarin 8.0
Couture 8.0
Skinner 7.5
Oshie 7.0
Ehlers 7.0
Barkov 6.0

Jay · Turning Back the Clock

Josh, you putting a golf lineup in this week? Tourney starts tomorrow.

GOCUBSGO · Guru

Jay wrote:
Josh, you putting a golf lineup in this week? Tourney starts tomorrow.

Thanks man, been a busy week. Thought about it this past weekend and just forgot.

Zach6668 · Guru

Oh, good start. Is Ristolainen getting tossed out (as he should) for hurting Crosby's line? Goddamnit. Lol.

Zach6668 · Guru

Score alert tells me Demers scores.

Dammit, that's Jay's player!

Check NHL.com... nope, Barkov from Demers and Jagr (also Jay's).

Check Jay's lineup... no Demers or Jagr.

Lucky Zach is getting hot at the right time, perhaps.

rinswun · Guru

Adam's missed his lineup but still has time to cover some of the empty spots. I tried to text him but got a bounce back, might be that I have his old number or that a text from Australia to the US via a UK phone is too much for my phone network!

Zach6668 · Guru

Tried to text him as well but no response.

Best he can do is add MacKinnon, Parayko, Wiercioch and goalies (MIN).

Zach6668 · Guru

Skinner is on some run. Has 5 goals in the last 3 games (all FCHL games).

GOCUBSGO · Guru

GG Dan, my offense can't do sh*t these past few days. 5 goals allowed doesn't help either. You're in the driver seat now.

GOCUBSGO · Guru

Hossa goal gives me a sliver of hope, but I need to score more and fade all of Dan's remaining guys. He has OT too.

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

You and Dale both have Hossa/Pavelski. It's terrifying. I am trying to hold off both of you for a 3-1 lead in each.

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

I'm just glad you don't have Mcdavid/Draistl tonight. They give me nightmares, worse then puppets

Jay · Turning Back the Clock

It's so frustrating when you build something just for this stretch of games and then go cold at the wrong time. Games of 1, 0.5, and 1. Good game Zach.

Zach6668 · Guru

Jay wrote:
It's so frustrating when you build something just for this stretch of games and then go cold at the wrong time. Games of 1, 0.5, and 1. Good game Zach.

I know the feeling well.

Ty.

Back at it on Thursday. You guys should have a team meeting. It ain't over, that's for sure.

Zach6668 · Guru

FCHL Playoffs

Round 2: March 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 25, 28

(1) Toronto Rocket vs. (4) Newmarket Hurricanes
Toronto Rockets lead series 3-1

Game 1: Toronto Rocket 1.5 vs. Newmarket Hurricanes 5.0
Game 2: Toronto Rocket 6.5 vs. Newmarket Hurricanes 1.0
Game 3: Toronto Rocket 7.0 vs. Newmarket Hurricanes 0.5
Game 4: Toronto Rocket 4.0 vs. Newmarket Hurricanes 1.5
Game 5: Toronto Rocket vs. Newmarket Hurricanes
*Game 6: Toronto Rocket vs. Newmarket Hurricanes
*Game 7: Toronto Rocket vs. Newmarket Hurricanes

(2) asdfjkl; vs. (3) Iowa Crop Dusters
asdfjkl; lead series tied 3-1

Game 1: asdfjkl; 4.5 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters 6.5
Game 2: asdfjkl; 3.0 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters 2.0
Game 3: asdfjkl; 3.0 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters 1.0
Game 4: asdfjkl; 2.0 vs. Iowa Crop Dusters 1.0
Game 5: asdfjkl; vs. Iowa Crop Dusters
*Game 6: asdfjkl; vs. Iowa Crop Dusters
*Game 7: asdfjkl; vs. Iowa Crop Dusters

MrDannyG Memorial Tournament

(9) Lost Cause vs. (14) Blindsides
Series tied 2-2

Game 1: Lost Cause 0.5 vs. Blindsides 2.0
Game 2: Lost Cause 3.0 vs. Blindsides 0.0
Game 3: Lost Cause 1.5 vs. Blindsides 0.0
Game 4: Lost Cause (-2.0) vs. Blindsides 0.5
Game 5: Lost Cause vs. Blindsides
Game 6: Lost Cause vs. Blindsides
*Game 7: Lost Cause vs. Blindsides

(10) Royal Oak Fearsome Beavers vs. (13) Lethbridge Golden Seals
Series tied 2-2

Game 1: Fearsome Beavers 3.5 vs. Golden Seals (-1.0)
Game 2: Fearsome Beavers 1.5 vs. Golden Seals (-1.0)
Game 3: Fearsome Beavers 2.0 vs. Golden Seals 3.5
Game 4: Fearsome Beavers 1.0 vs. Golden Seals 2.0
Game 5: Fearsome Beavers vs. Golden Seals
Game 6: Fearsome Beavers vs. Golden Seals
*Game 7: Fearsome Beavers vs. Golden Seals

* - if necessary

Round 1 results can be found here.

-- Edited by Zach6668 on Wednesday 22nd of March 2017 10:22:45 AM

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

GG josh.

SBriand · Guru

Was winning till his 2 remaining players on crappy Colorado get 1.5 Pts in one shot at the 14:50 mark of the 3rd.

Although I did leave 4.5 on the bench tonight. :/

Zach6668 · Guru

Ouch.

Dubey · Guru

You got Mark Barberio'd

Adam · Guru

Sorry about the miss guys, I'm not sure what happened there. I know I did a lineup for the game but for some reason it didn't save...very strange. Thanks to Ollie and Zach for reaching out, I appreciate it.

Zach6668 · Guru

There was a scoring change on Washington's 3rd goal last night.

It was Shattenkirk from Backstrom and Ovechkin.

It has been changed to Backstrom from Shattenkirk and Oshie.

I checked to see if it affected the results, and of course it didn't, but I made the scoring changes anyways.

Ottawa_Biatch · Guru

lol in the AHL, if I went with Calgary goalies. I would have lost by 0.5. But then with this scoring change, I would have tied Dale and won in OT. That would have been hilarious.

Zach6668 · Guru

Ha. Dale would not be happy.